Here is an initial take on bunch of companies that are supposedly struggling to make payments to either investors or lenders. The comments below are based on 10 minute research time in each. The deep-dive work is pretty extensive and requires some domain knowledge and some almost “insider” hints.
Anadarko (APC): – all information is missing.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR): Down, down, down since it became public in 2014. They have no cash and 7B debt. Their PE ratio is 1.49!! Their price to sale is 1.25. Need to work to see what is going on with it.
Apache (APA): The stock has been sliding since 2011, from around $140 to $22. No current P/E ratio and the forward P/E is about 34. Their revenue is just about 7 billion but their income is -707 million. They are sitting on 549 million and total debt is 8.68B. There is interest expenses and some other expenses that I do not understand or cannot make out. Despite the fact that it is going to $22 there might be a little bit of “shorting” to cultivate.
HighPoint Resources (HPR) – cap is less only 258M.
Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO) – cap is less than 700M.
Chesapeake (CHK): Straight down since 2008. From $80 to $1.4. This is a perfect example of how they go down under. There is nothing here to be shorted. The risk not worth it in case they get some kind of bailout.
Cimarex Energy (XEC): Short on cash 19 million against 2.27B of debt.
Concho Resources (CXO): They are short on cash. They have 14.67B cap.
ConocoPhillips (COP): Nothing alarming here. Shrinking earning but there is lots of cash to pay the debt (50% of debt cash).
Continental Resources (CLR) —
Devon Energy (DVN): Straight down since 2008. From $140 to $23. The stats do not look that bad. They have cash to cover the whole debt. So, I am not sure there is anything to trade here at the moment. I have had a previous post in regard to DVN and my assessment at that time to short at $30.
Diamondback Energy (FANG): This is a Permian Basin West Texas company focused on “unconventional and offshore”. The fundamentals are pretty decent, but if oil starts sliding it will. It hit its all times high at $140 in mind 2018. It is about $98 now. The trend is down. The cap is almost 16B, so not that big. The P/E is about 17 which is high for the sector. Prices to sale is >5 indicating stocks buyback. Revenue is 3B and income is 800 million, so it is not badly run. They are sitting on 325 million cash and debt of 4.5 billion. The 10 daily volume is 1.57 shares so it is about $ 157 million a day. Their cash is worth 3 days of trading only.
Ecana Corp (ECA): Straight down since 2008. From $50 to $4.5. They are very short on cash and cash to debt ratio is around 1-2%. So that is an angle, however, their income is 1.16B and debt is 8.39B so they might be in a tough spot. However, at $4.5 what exactly is there left?
EOG Resources (EOG): The company hit its all time high about $130+ in November of 2018. Since then it went down to $76. The financials are not that bad. The price to sale ratio is about 2.5. They are well run (revenue to income) and they do not pay too much div. If we consider the 2016 level, there might be some air to benefit from.
EP Energy (EPEG): – 12 million cap.
Laredo Petroleum (LPI) — cap is <600M.
Marathon Oil (MPC): The only thing I see here is the cash to debt ratio, about 3%. But the company sells gas at the pump and that is not going to go away anytime soon. The chart does not look that bad either.
Murphy Oil (MUR): Do not see the issues.
Newfield Exploration — cannot find.
Noble Energy (NE): – 362M cap.
Oasis Petroleum (OAS): 1B cap.
Parsley Energy (PE): Short on cash, 64 million against 2.4B debt. Price to sales is 3. That is about it.
PDC Energy (PDCE): Has 2B in cap. P/E is about 16 which is a little high. The stock hit it height in 2008 and 2017. the top was around $80 and now trading at $31. Revenue is 1.34B and income is 123 million so about 10% margin. Cash is 1.47 and debt is 1.22B so they are strapped for cash. If the stock goes up to $50 or so it might be a good short.
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD): P/E of 23, P/S of 2.23. Revenue is 9.3B and income is 900M. Cash is 987M and debt is 2.62B. The stock has its up and down. It is at $124 now and was above $200 mid of last year.
QEP Resources (QEP): — Cap of <1B and trading around $4.
Sanchez Energy Corporation (SNEC): 5.49 cap.
SM Energy (SM): ~ 1B cap.
Southwestern Energy (SWN): 958M cap.
Whiting Petroleum (WLL): 620M cap.
WPX Energy (WPX): 4.52B cap, “unconventional” in Texas and NM. P/E ratio is 7.5 going to 16. P/S is 1.91. Revenue is 2.38B and income of 604M. Cash is 109M an debt is 2.25B. There is no div. The 10 day volume is 6.36M with 417M float. The stock is trading at $10 so the daily value is 63M. What they have in cash is enough for about 1.5 day.
Hess (HES): Cap 20B, P/E is 60+, P/S is also 3+, Revenue is 6.5B while income is -47M. They have 2.21B cash and 7.5B debt. They are trading at $65. The 10 day average volume is 2.37M making it about $154 million daily volume. They can suck out bunch of days but I doubt if they want to increase their P/S or loose that cash. They income has been negative for the last 4 quarters. The chart looks pretty good. Based on how it moves, I think it is a good short. And they are paying $1 a year div.
Matador Resources (MTDR): It is Texas and NM, and it has an investment in shale. It has 1.75B. P/E is 10 and P/S is about 2 so these are ok. Revenue is 824M and income is 174M. Cash is 60M and debt is 1.57B. There is No div. The daily 10 day average volume is 1.81M. Stocks peaked around $36 late 2018. Now it is trading around $15. So that daily volume is 27M. That is a scary number to short really. This is an option play not straight short.